Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 253

Wu Peifu could only hope that Lu Yongxiang wouldn't be defeated by the Red Army, although this hope was slim. He knew that the discipline of the rearguard was not as good as his own regiment, and expecting them to complete a defensive operation during an attack was likely futile. After all, the Beiyang Army had never considered this type of warfare. How could they attack the rearguard if the front troops hadn't been annihilated? If they were attacked from both sides, they would be finished.

However, the large number of mules and horses in the Red Army's forces enabled some heavy weapons to keep up with the marching speed of the infantry. This meant that the Red Army's offensive power was not weakened after it moved. While the Beiyang Army could resist the infantry's charge while on the march, it would inevitably be destroyed when faced with an infantry attack reinforced by heavy weapons.

The miracle Wu Peifu had hoped for did not occur. Under the Red Army's rapid offensive, Lu Yongxiang's troops immediately lost command. After being divided and surrounded by the Red Army, they quickly surrendered in groups. Before dark, Wu Peifu saw his colleagues from the rear who had been sent by the Red Army to persuade them to surrender.

Wu Peifu was unwilling to admit defeat so easily, feeling it was ridiculous to lose without even having fought the Red Army. He delayed the Red Army, hoping for reinforcements from Zheng County, since the Fourth Division had already crossed the Yellow River. However, after three days, no reinforcements arrived, and the Red Army's artillery had reached the front lines. Faced with the Red Army's decision to launch an attack, Wu Peifu had no choice but to order a surrender.

Three days after Wu Peifu's surrender, Cao Kun led the remnants of the Third Division and most of the Fourth Division back to the north bank of the Yellow River. Although the Red Army failed to annihilate a complete division of the Beiyang Army, the Third Army was effectively crippled, with nearly 11 troops left stranded on the south bank of the Yellow River. After retreating to the north bank, Cao Kun headed north, eventually reaching the Handan area. Thus, on November 5th, the Beiyang Army's southward offensive officially failed.

Chapter 792

Less than 40 days after the start of the war, the main force of the Third Army, which was heading south, was defeated in front of Wuhan. Cao Kun couldn't even hold the Yellow River because the Beiyang Army dared not blow up the Yellow River Railway Bridge and did not have time to set up explosives.

Before the war, there was some public opinion in Beijing denouncing the southerners. Those intellectuals from the landlord class said that this southern expedition was to punish the rebels in a righteous way. Yuan Shikai, as the chairman of the State Council, was equivalent to the former emperor of the Qing Dynasty. Wuhan was just a group of peasants and laborers who controlled a region. Not only did they oppose Beijing in every aspect of national policy, but they also dared to interfere in national personnel and disrupt the stability of the country. Therefore, the Beiyang Army's southward march to sweep away the villains was a major policy to clarify the country.

While the Beiyang generals weren't as optimistic about the war as these landlords and intellectuals, they still believed the Beiyang forces held a certain advantage. Furthermore, most of the major powers, except Germany, supported the Beiyang, and although the United States maintained neutrality, it agreed to sell various supplies to the Beiyang. Therefore, the optimistic Beiyang generals thought they could directly capture Wuhan, while the slightly more pessimistic ones believed they could force Wuhan to accept a division between North and South.

However, the Third Army was routed not long after crossing the Yellow River, something no one in the Beiyang Army could have predicted. Upon returning to Handan, Cao Kun immediately complained to Yuan Shikai, stating that the defeat was not his fault, but rather due to Xu's haphazard command. Xu not only ignored his advice to proceed cautiously but also bypassed him to order the Third Army's subordinate units to cross the river, leaving Cao Kun, the commander of the Third Army, only able to command his own Third Division and unable to coordinate the entire army.

Duan Qirui naturally wanted to protect his confidants, and besides, he didn't think there was anything wrong with Xu's command. He told Yuan Shikai, "The cloth merchant is incompetent in leading troops. His Third Division couldn't even hold out for a day. How can others set up defenses? It's not that my Ministry of War made a mistake in command, but that the cloth merchant used his personal connections and ruined the Third Division."

Yuan Shikai retorted, displeased, "Zhongshan is honest and kind, but he's easily influenced. It's best not to say things like 'cloth merchant' or 'cloth merchant,' which would damage camaraderie among colleagues. Besides, is this the time to assign blame? The question now is what to do. Does the Ministry of War have any plans? We can't just sit here and argue; do you think the Southern Army will wait to watch us fight like this?"

Duan Qirui was speechless. What plan could possibly salvage the situation? The strongest force had been routed by the Southern Army, and in a very easy way. The Southern Army had suffered almost no casualties. According to a Japanese advisor, "This is not a war, but a marathon. The Beiyang soldiers have no time to fight except for running."

Before the war began, Duan Qirui acknowledged that the Southern Army was stronger than the Beiyang Army, but he believed that the Beiyang Army's old forces would not be much weaker than the Southern Army's. Therefore, with their numerical advantage, they would have the upper hand at least in the early stages of the war. As for the later stages of the war, it would depend on whether Wuhan could mobilize enough reserve forces. However, he believed that even if Wuhan was not captured, the war would deplete Wuhan's combat capabilities to a certain extent, thus ensuring peace in the north for several years.

However, the defeat of the Third Army revealed the true gap between the Beiyang Army and the Southern Army. The Southern Army had clearly made much faster progress after the war against Russia, while the Beiyang Army remained complacent in its glorious history of defeating the Russian army and made no tactical reforms whatsoever. The moment the two armies clashed, the Beiyang Army's glorious history was shattered.

Faced with such a huge disparity in combat power, what remedial plan could the Army Ministry possibly formulate? The strongest Third Army was easily defeated, so what troops could possibly carry out the Army Ministry's self-rescue plan? However, Duan Qirui couldn't use this statement to criticize Yuan Shikai, after all, he had been in charge of training the army for the past few years, and he was the one who led the way in resisting Yuan Shikai's proposed military reforms. To say that they couldn't fight at this time would be a joke.

After much deliberation, Duan Qirui had no choice but to reply: "The only option now is to withdraw the First and Second Armies back to Shandong as soon as possible, and then negotiate peace with the Germans and the Wuhan authorities. Continuing to fight would probably be disadvantageous for us."

Upon hearing this reply, Yuan Shikai was naturally furious. He angrily said, "What did you say before the war started? The great powers supported us. Even if we couldn't destroy Wuhan, we could at least force Wuhan to accept the division of Wuhan into North and South. Now, how long has the war been going on, and you're already talking about making peace? Does the Ministry of War treat war like a game?"

After being reprimanded by Yuan Shikai, Duan Qirui felt deeply humiliated and, upon returning home, simply resigned citing illness. Yuan Shikai was speechless; while Duan Qirui could shirk his responsibilities, he couldn't. Now, both Britain and Japan were pressing him about his next move.

British and Japanese diplomats were panicked by the rapid defeat of the Third Army. The British were worried that the loans they had given to the Beiyang Army might be lost, and that after Wuhan unified the country, British interests in China would suffer greatly. Japanese diplomats were worried not only about the loans, but also about a plan for the army to intervene in the Chinese civil war, which turned into a complete diplomatic disaster.

According to Prime Minister Katsura Taro and the Army, once the civil war breaks out in China, it will be a great opportunity for Japan to completely occupy the Primorsky Krai and extend its influence into northern Manchuria. If northern Manchuria is lost as a support point for the anti-Japanese forces in northern Korea, the anti-Japanese forces in northern Korea will also collapse, and the Army's continental policy will have the possibility of being revived.

After Katsura Taro formed his cabinet, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was replaced by a group of pro-army imperialists. The basis for Komura Jutaro's joint planning with the army for the Russo-Japanese War was a group of European students who began to make their mark in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Their backgrounds were very different from those of the early Japanese diplomats. These new students received imperial education from a young age rather than Confucian education. The difference between imperial education and Confucian education lies in the fact that Confucianism in the Edo period at least emphasized benevolence and righteousness, while imperial education only focused on loyalty and filial piety.

Japanese students who went to Europe for further education under the Imperial Government, and who then embraced British power diplomacy and social Darwinism, would produce diplomats like Komura Jutaro, who were even more belligerent than soldiers. Komura's push for the Anglo-Japanese Alliance and the war against Russia was essentially aimed at making Japan a second Great Britain. He was, in effect, a typical British imperialist diplomat, not much different from the British diplomats who launched the Afghan War and the Boer War.

Early Japanese diplomats, led by Itō Hirobumi, were simply focused on preserving Japan within the order established by the great powers. Their thinking was more akin to Bismarck's reconstruction of regional order, aiming to establish a new order centered on Japan in East Asia after the collapse of the Chinese order. Although this new order also harbored ambitions for outward expansion, Itō was well aware that Japan's expansion had boundaries. Just as Germany could not accommodate the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Itō also believed that the eighteen provinces of China could not be annexed by Japan, as this would disrupt the new order centered on Japan.

Hirobumi Ito's ideal Asian order was one of Japan and Korea annexation, Japan and Russia maintaining peace, and Manchuria and Mongolia becoming independent as buffers between Japan, China, and Russia. He envisioned a new East Asian order based on this, similar to a treaty system dominated by major powers like those in Europe. Therefore, Ito supported the army's annexation of the Korean Peninsula, but not a war between Japan and Russia over Manchuria. Similarly, he did not support the navy's southward expansion policy; in reality, Taiwan was the only acceptable southern border for Japan for him.

However, Ito Hirobumi's diplomatic vision failed to gain the support of the army and navy, nor was it accepted by the new generation of young imperialist bureaucrats. Radicals considered him too conservative, while conservatives considered him too radical. This was also the reason why Ito's political career gradually declined after the First Sino-Japanese War, because his views on diplomacy belonged to the minority.

In other words, Hayashi Shinichi revised the navy's development strategy and timely proposed the idea of ​​an Asian alliance, providing Ito Hirobumi with a new diplomatic foothold and thus escaping the predicament of being opposed by all sides. Of course, if the Asian alliance approach was to be supported, then it was necessary to revise the East Asian Co-Prosperity Principle, resolve the imperial order centered on Japan, and completely adopt equal diplomacy based on European treaty diplomacy.

Ito Hirobumi's diplomatic philosophy was influential, and some Japanese bureaucrats could accept it. However, for the students who had been deeply educated in British politics, it was actually difficult to shake off the idea of ​​imperial diplomacy. They could not accept that Koreans and Vietnamese people could discuss the Asian order on an equal footing with Japanese people, after all, these two ethnic groups could not even achieve independence.

Katsura Taro's cabinet formation allowed the Imperial faction to regain power in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. These diplomats attempted to seize the opportunity of triggering a civil war in China to completely resolve the outstanding issues in the Korean Peninsula and coastal areas, and to establish Japan's special interests in Manchuria.

However, after Emperor Meiji's death, the army did lose a major source of pressure, but it also lost its spiritual pillar for inspiring the people to support foreign wars. The Japanese people would admire soldiers, but they wouldn't charge into battle for the military. Only the Emperor could compel the Japanese to fight on the battlefield. Although Emperor Taisho's intellectual deficiencies were not outwardly apparent, his reclusive lifestyle prevented the people from developing a fervent sense of worship for him.

The army's use of the Emperor's edict to directly form a cabinet further fueled public doubts about the Emperor's ability to handle state affairs rationally. After all, during the Meiji Emperor's reign, the Prime Minister was recommended by the elder statesmen and then submitted to the Emperor for a royal decree, rather than being directly appointed by the Emperor. This method effectively violated the Five Articles of the Constitution, and although it complied with the Meiji Constitution, it was unacceptable to intellectuals.

Therefore, when the Katsura Taro cabinet proposed the troop reinforcement bill, the Diet launched a full-scale attack. Party members believed that the army was attempting to establish a military dictatorship, which was clearly a violation of the constitution, and their expectations for party politics would be completely dashed. If a troop reinforcement bill could not be passed, then naturally, a more convincing pretext was needed to intervene in the Chinese civil war.

According to this Japanese diplomat, only when the northern and southern armies of China are locked in a stalemate can Japan have a reason to send troops to protect its citizens, thus realizing its proposal to send troops overseas. But now, the Beiyang Army has collapsed at the first sign of trouble, and only now is public opinion in Japan starting to build momentum; there hasn't even been a call to intervene in the Chinese civil war yet.

Faced with the rapid collapse of the Beiyang Army, Japanese diplomats in China naturally realized that the Katsura Taro cabinet's foreign policy toward China was on the verge of bankruptcy. This bankruptcy would inevitably lead to a purge of imperialist diplomats. After all, since the establishment of the Asian Alliance, the number of diplomats advocating cooperation within the alliance has been gradually increasing. The failure of the diplomatic approach led by imperialist diplomats would naturally strengthen the supporters of the alliance-oriented diplomatic approach, who were naturally very anxious.

However, British and Japanese diplomats soon discovered that no matter how much pressure they put on Yuan Shikai, the situation in China was already out of control. After taking control of the Yellow River railway bridge, the Wuhan army did not continue its advance towards Handan, but instead turned east and swept through in three directions.

The northern route advanced along the Yellow River towards Kaifeng and Heze, the central route towards Suzhou and Xuzhou, and the southern route from eastern Anhui towards the Jinpu Railway. Meanwhile, Wuhan gradually completed its transition to wartime production, and by the end of October, two mobilization divisions had been assembled and had taken over the protection of the logistics routes in Hubei, Henan and other places.

According to American observations and reports about Wuhan, the people of Wuhan were enthusiastically supportive of the war effort, and a large number of workers eagerly signed up to join the army. At least in the observations of this American journalist, two to three thousand young men completed their registration at the open recruitment office in just half a day.

According to his estimate, the total population of the three districts of Wuhan is about 1.2 million, with at least 400,000 to 500,000 young adults. If one-tenth of that is mobilized, two to three divisions can be formed. The population of the Hubei and Hunan regions exceeds 60 million, which is close to the population of Germany. If this mobilization continues, Wuhan will soon have an army of more than 600,000 people.

In contrast, under the Beiyang government, before the outbreak of war, the channels for recruiting soldiers were relatively limited. Most people joined the army for military pay, and many did not meet the Beiyang's recruitment requirements. However, due to personal connections, these unqualified soldiers filled a large number of the quotas. Some of them were not even 16 years old. Their military pay was given to officers, and they could only wait a few years before they could officially participate in training. This was what was known as "drinking the blood of soldiers."

After the outbreak of war, those with connections refused to enlist, but there weren't many honest farmers willing to serve, since good men don't become soldiers. Only street ruffians were willing to accept military pay, but these people were difficult to discipline. After the Third Army suffered a defeat at the front, even the street ruffians dared not enlist, and the Beiyang Army's reserve manpower began to dry up.

Both Britain and Japan, being nations with modern political systems, quickly deduced from Wuhan's conscription capabilities and tactics that Wuhan's objective was not merely to defeat the Beiyang Army, but to completely annihilate them and unify the country. At this point, pressuring the Beiyang Army was futile; under Wuhan's offensive, if the Beiyang Army couldn't withstand the attack, they truly couldn't, and there was no need for them to conceal their strength.

Therefore, British diplomats advised the Katsura Taro cabinet that Japan should intervene in the Chinese civil war as soon as possible, lest it be too late. Japanese diplomats in China shared similar views, warning Tokyo that "if Japan waits until after Wuhan has captured Beijing before sending troops, it will lose the legitimacy of its actions and trigger a full-scale war between Japan and China, leading to the complete collapse of the East Asian order."

Meanwhile, these Japanese diplomats in China also filed a complaint against the navy, arguing that the navy had not provided the Beiyang Army with the necessary assistance as instructed by the government. They claimed that the navy not only prevented the Beiyang Army from controlling Shandong, but also delayed the situation through negotiations, causing the situation in Shandong to completely spiral out of control after the defeat of the Beiyang Third Army.

Amidst their predicament, Katsura Taro and the Minister of the Army seized upon a telegram from a diplomat stationed in China to question whether the navy's actions in China were undermining Japan's national policy. Katsura's questioning provoked discontent within the navy. Yamamoto Gonnohyōe accused Katsura of not only undermining the national policy he and Saionji had formulated for Japan since taking office, but also of shamelessly trying to shift blame for his diplomatic failures onto the navy.

A fierce debate erupted between the Army and the Navy regarding policy toward China, this time even splitting the council of elders. The Army's previous active support for the Beiyang Fleet had never been approved by the Navy, but the greed of some within the Navy for the Liaodong Peninsula and coastal areas led the Navy to tacitly approve the Army's actions.

The Japanese, rising too rapidly, ultimately lacked strategic resolve. They were always tempted to take a bite of any profitable advantage, without considering whether their appetite truly held up if they swallowed it all. The importance of the southward expansion strategy to the Japanese navy, and the importance of the Asian alliance for its southward expansion, led the navy to forget its priorities, lured by the prospect of conquering Dalian, Lushun, and Vladivostok.

Therefore, Lin Xinyi went to Wuhan immediately, believing that the Beiyang Army's military power should be defeated quickly to curb the desire of the foreign powers to join the war. And Wuhan's military capabilities did indeed fulfill his plan. Within a week of his return to Qingdao from Wuhan, the battle situation between the North and South armies had undergone a dramatic change.

By using the alliance as a pretext to delay the Beiyang Army's attack on Qingdao and other places, the Shandong Workers' Party ushered in a strategic turning point. The defeat of the Beiyang Third Army made the Beiyang Fifth Division lose its desire to occupy Qingdao. If Beijing was about to be occupied by Wuhan, wouldn't the Fifth Division be waiting to be purged after the war if it went to attack Qingdao?

Meanwhile, naval commanders who had previously complained that Lin Xinyi failed to consider the interests of the empire began to agree with the view that maintaining the alliance was beneficial to Japan after the rapid defeat of the Beiyang Third Army.

Yamamoto Gonnohyōe's criticism of Katsura Taro's China policy was essentially a statement that Katsura Taro should step down. Since the army's continental policy had failed, it was only natural for the navy to take over. After all, the navy's advocacy of the Asian alliance had maintained good relations with Wuhan. Once Katsura Taro stepped down, Japan's diplomacy toward China could immediately shift.

End of this chapter

Chapter 793

Hori Teikichi served as Hayashi Nobuyoshi's main deputy, while the other was Toyoda Teijiro, a member of the 33rd class. As the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Combined Fleet, who often neglected his own duties, Hayashi Nobuyoshi divided his work into two parts and assigned them to these two deputies. Hori Teikichi was mainly responsible for staff work and the development planning of the Combined Fleet.

Regarding the Combined Fleet's stance on the Chinese Civil War, the general direction was decided by Hayashi Nobuyoshi, while the specific implementation was handled by Hori Teikichi. Although he was also annoyed by the ambiguous orders from the domestic authorities—the Ministry of the Navy's orders to the Combined Fleet were extremely vague due to differing opinions, wanting to take advantage of the Chinese Civil War while not wanting to completely sever ties with Wuhan—they were trying to gain benefits from it.

Young officers like Hori Teikichi believed that the Ministry of the Navy's order was completely self-contradictory. For the Japanese Navy, after eliminating the naval forces of Russia and Germany in Northeast Asia, whether or not they could obtain mainland ports was actually secondary, because a continental country without a navy could not threaten the Japanese Navy.

Even if China were to unify the country today, it would be impossible to conjure up a massive dreadnought fleet overnight. Even Japan and Italy, which proposed the concept of dreadnoughts, still lagged far behind Britain and Germany in the design and construction of dreadnoughts due to insufficient industrial technology and capabilities.

Compared to Japan, China, whose naval system had been destroyed, was even less likely to rebuild a large fleet capable of threatening the Japanese navy in the short term. Therefore, these young officers agreed with Akiyama and Hayashi Nobuyoshi's views: the Chinese navy was no longer a match for the Japanese navy; in fact, China's foreign trade development required the support of the Japanese navy, making a Sino-Japanese alliance a possibility.

Besides its own naval strength, Japan's southward expansion strategy also required a powerful land force to exert pressure on Southeast Asia, thereby forcing European powers to consider peacefully relinquishing power. Before 1910, the only independent country in Southeast and South Asia was Thailand, which was still being forced to cede territory by Britain and France. If it weren't for the escalating tensions between Britain and France and Germany, requiring them to mediate, Thailand would have effectively been partitioned by Britain and France.

Therefore, the biggest contradiction in Southeast Asia now is the contradiction between the indigenous people and colonialism. At this time, the southward expansion of China and Japan, representing the traditional Asian order, is actually an opportunity for these indigenous people to gain independence from the colonizers. As for the so-called introduction of Western powers to counter the Chinese order, that's a joke. The traditional Chinese order was much gentler than the European colonial order of the 19th century. Some people use the Cold War after World War II to describe the nationalist wave before World War I, which is laughable. This history was probably taught by a physiology teacher.

Even before Hayashi Shin-yi, the Japanese army and navy's foreign expansion policy was based on the theory of restoring the Chinese order. During the First Sino-Japanese War, the Korean reformists wanted to gain independence from the rule of the Manchu Qing Dynasty, which is why they chose to cooperate with Japan. This was because Koreans never recognized that the Manchu Qing Dynasty represented a new Chinese order after entering the Central Plains.

The Joseon Dynasty's upper class maintained its rule for nearly three hundred years after the fall of the Ming Dynasty by advocating the veneration of the Ming. This was not because the Joseon Dynasty's rule was deeply ingrained in the hearts of the people, but because the ideology of venerating the Ming compensated for the prestige lost by the Joseon Dynasty during the two Japanese invasions and the two Manchu invasions. If they had not venerated the Ming, the Joseon Dynasty would not have been able to continue ruling. They relied on venerating the Ming to demonstrate that they were still a remnant of the Chinese order, thus gaining legitimacy to their rule. It was inevitable that the prince who attempted to reform the Joseon system would be poisoned by the King of Joseon, because imitating the reforms of the Qing Dynasty would be tantamount to erasing the last legitimacy of the Joseon Dynasty's rule.

Therefore, in the more than two hundred years after the fall of the Ming Dynasty, the upper class of the Joseon Dynasty became a thorough conservative. Any reform was seen as a change of the Chinese order by the barbarians. Under such circumstances, the Joseon Dynasty naturally became a zombie, because all traditions were seen as resistance to the barbarian order. Abandoning traditions was tantamount to abandoning China and becoming a barbarian.

Inspired by Japan's opening of its country to the outside world and its expulsion of foreigners, the Enlightenment faction believed that Korea could learn from Western technology to gain independence from the Manchu Qing system, thus breaking the vicious cycle of conservatives representing the Chinese order and reformers representing the policy of assimilating foreign influences. The proclamation issued by Munakata Kotaro to the Japanese army for the Chinese people was precisely under the guise of restoring the Chinese order.

However, the capitalist mode of production determined that Japanese capitalism could not restore the Chinese order, but could only make Japan a new great power. The army's continental policy also quickly embarked on the path of imperialism, and the voice of restoring the Chinese order began to gradually decline.

However, the Japanese had already realized during the First Sino-Japanese War the benefits of inciting indigenous nationalism to aid their expansionist policies. The theories of Asian alliances and East Asian federations were precisely the Japanese attempts to establish a new Japanese-centered Chinese order. However, Japanese imperialism could hardly be integrated with these new Chinese orders. After all, what was there to welcome in a colonized people when an empire of yellow race replaced an empire of white races that oppressed them?

The transformation of the Korean reformists into traitors was a direct consequence of Japanese imperialism revealing its true colors to the Korean people. The Joseon Dynasty, once seen as corrupt and incompetent by the Korean people, has once again become a spiritual symbol of the Korean nation—a situation that can only be described as an absurd comedy.

After Hayashi Shin-yi proposed and established the Asian Alliance, its concept of an Asian economic community replaced the traditional colonial economic system, thus laying the political foundation for the Asian Alliance. Liberals and reformers in the navy began to shift towards allianceism, and imperialist ideology began to decline within the navy.

It's not that naval officers like Hori Teikichi lacked the foundation of imperial ideology, but rather that, as members of the navy, they were more aware that their adversaries were the navies of the great powers, not the coastal defenses of backward agricultural nations. After all, the world was no longer in the age of great maritime discoveries, but in the age of great powers vying for global dominance. The navy's adversaries were not the resistance of colonized nations, but the great powers competing for colonies.

In contrast, the army was much more closed off. Since the only major powers with reach of East Asia were Russia, the army believed that as long as they could defeat Russia, they could overwhelm the armies sent by the major powers to East Asia with sheer numbers. As for naval defense, that was the navy's responsibility, not the army's. Therefore, imperialistic thinking was most prevalent in the army; they saw no threat from the major powers, only the grand achievements of the British Empire in conquering the world.

However, the army's idealism was naturally unappealing to the naval officers who had already found the right path, so the order issued by the Ministry of the Navy did not gain the approval of the fleet officers. Lin Xinyi resisted the order of the Ministry of the Navy, not only did he not try to assist the Beiyang Army in seizing Qingdao, but he also joined forces with the Germans to persuade the Beiyang Army to resolve the issue of incitement through negotiations.

The Workers' Party's strength in Shandong was far inferior to that of the Beiyang Army, especially after the main force of the Beiyang Army moved south, leaving the Workers' Party isolated in Shandong. Although a war might not necessarily result in the loss of Qingdao, the development of the Shandong region would certainly be greatly affected. German capital naturally did not want war to break out in Shandong, as they were the direct victims. Therefore, with the help of Lin Xinyi, they put pressure on the Beiyang Army, demanding a peaceful resolution to the issue of Shandong's control.

The Beiyang Army could not ignore the pressure from both Germany and Japan. Although Japan's attitude was somewhat strange—its army and diplomats supported the Beiyang's southward advance, while its navy joined the Germans in opposing the Beiyang's military capture of Qingdao—this doubt was no longer a problem with the defeat of the Beiyang Third Army. The entire southern expedition plan had failed; what was the point of fighting the Shandong campaign then?

The naval officers who were somewhat worried about Lin Xinyi's decision, as the situation between the North and South armies changed drastically, also deeply admired Lin Xinyi's decisiveness. If they had followed the Navy Ministry's orders to assist the Beiyang Army in controlling Qingdao and the Yangtze River shipping, they would now be facing the wrath of Wuhan, and the alliance would have broken down.

However, as the Southern Army achieved successive victories, Lin Xinyi, upon returning to Qingdao, became leisurely again, which greatly displeased Hori Teikichi. Hori Teikichi then protested to Lin Xinyi, who had been given a leave to go fishing, saying, "The defeat of the Beiyang Fleet is only a matter of time. Shouldn't the Combined Fleet be demanding more rights from Wuhan at this time? This is the reward we deserve. Giving yourself a leave at this time is irresponsible to the Combined Fleet."

Lin Xinyi looked at him and shook his head, saying, "In this respect, you are not as good as Toyota. You are too serious about your work and do not know when to relax, which is quite inappropriate. Although the army is a machine, those who control it cannot be its slaves. We must constantly remind ourselves that the purpose of creating machines is to improve our own lives, not to destroy them. The army does not understand this point, so it regards war as the only meaning of its existence. This is why they support the Beiyang Army in fighting the war in Wuhan."

Hori Teikichi replied with dissatisfaction, "I'm not here to listen to your grand principles. If Wuhan successfully takes over Beijing, it won't be so easy for them to agree to our demands. This is related to the status of the Combined Fleet in the Southern Strategy, which was also the goal you set when you established the Combined Fleet. You haven't forgotten that, have you?"

Lin Xinyi could only shake his head speechlessly, then said to him, "What do you think would be the primary goal of the Labor Party after it unifies China?"

Without hesitation, Hori Teikichi replied, “Of course, it is to reclaim all lost sovereignty. Isn’t that what our country has been striving for today? Therefore, we should first clarify with the Labor Party what the legitimate rights of the Combined Fleet are and what sovereignty belongs to China. If we don’t clarify this point, it will be much more difficult for us to negotiate with the Labor Party after it gains control of the whole country.”

Lin Xinyi shook his head and said, "After the Labor Party unifies the country, the first thing to solve is the development problem. The landlord class can ignore the lives of peasants as long as they can receive their rent on time. But the supporters of the Labor Party are workers and peasants. If they cannot solve the problem of food and clothing for workers and peasants, then they will not be able to maintain their power."

China's development problems can only be solved through industrialization, which in turn requires an Asian common market. Tropical cash crops and rice from the south are indispensable for China's industrial development. Therefore, liberating Asia aligns with the ruling ideology of the Workers' Party. Without liberating Asia, an Asian common market cannot be established, and China's industrialization will be plagued by shortages of raw materials and markets.

Therefore, the navy's southward strategy is not to control the joint fleet, but to support the Asian alliance. As long as the Asian alliance exists, the Asian Economic Community will not be a slogan, but a political goal of the alliance.

Demanding the right to a joint fleet from China is unnecessary, in my opinion, because China has no immediate means of acquiring naval power other than a joint fleet. For its own interests, the Chinese government would proactively propose expanding the rights of the joint fleet, thereby promoting the establishment of an Asian economic community, breaking down the spheres of influence of the great powers in Asia, and ultimately realizing a common market in Asia. This is the economic interest under the political objectives of an alliance.

So why should we proactively make demands based on the needs of the Chinese? The consequences, besides increasing the Chinese's vigilance towards us, would also cause confusion among other Asian nations: is the Combined Fleet the protector of the alliance, or a subordinate fleet of the Japanese Navy? For the Japanese Navy, maintaining the alliance has already yielded the greatest benefit; to argue over such minor issues in this context is truly unnecessary.

Hori Teikichi pondered for a long time but couldn't find any basis to refute this theory, since the formation of the Combined Fleet was based on this concept. However, he still forced himself to say, "But we can't just sit idly by, can we? The situation in Europe is so tense, and now East Asia is in chaos again. Are we just going to do nothing?"

Lin Xinyi turned to look at the blue sky and white clouds outside the window, sighed slightly, and said, "It's not about doing nothing, but about waiting. You don't think the army will just give up and collapse like that, do you? Katsura Taro has shed so much blood this time. If he steps down empty-handed, will the zaibatsu still dare to support the army in the future? Their loans to Beiyang might very well become bad debts. So, what we should be concerned about now is the domestic problem, not the problems of China and Southeast Asia."

Hori Teikichi was taken aback by Hayashi Nobuyoshi's remarks. He said with considerable skepticism, "The Beiyang Army has already failed, and the army hasn't even passed the proposal to reinforce its troops. It's probably too late for them to intervene in the Chinese Civil War. Public opinion in Japan is also beginning to shift, believing that Japan should not interfere in the Chinese Civil War, otherwise it will only harm Japan's interests in China. Can Prime Minister Katsura really force a war?"

After a moment's thought, Lin Xinyi said, "I don't know what the army will do, but war is the only way to resolve all the troubles of the Katsura Taro cabinet. Only a war can allow the army to continue in power. Of course, the army's actions will still be constrained by other political forces, so I can't guess what the army will actually do..."

The army is indeed in chaos. Even other forces in the military that have long been hostile to the Choshu faction are unwilling to let Katsura Taro resign this time. As Lin Xinyi said, Katsura Taro has actually offended many people and broken many unspoken political rules by forming a cabinet this time. If he can expand the interests of the army and the zaibatsu in mainland China, then stepping down at this time cannot be considered a complete failure.

However, the current situation is that the Chinese Civil War has completely deviated from the army's pre-war predictions. The Beiyang Army has been defeated so quickly that even Katsura Taro has failed to persuade the parliament to change national policy. Shifting the national policy from economic development to military expansion inevitably requires the parliament to realize that military expansion can bring more benefits than economic development.

Katsura Taro's basis for persuading the parliamentarians was the dissatisfaction of domestic farmers with the continuous decline in food prices. Previously, Japanese farmers could only afford to pay land taxes when food prices kept rising. However, after Saionji Kinmochi came to power, he lifted the ban on importing North Korean rice, which immediately drove down rice prices. This made it difficult for farmers to make ends meet, and the number of farmers demanding land reform increased again.

After the land reform in Chiba Prefecture, farmers obtained land and began cooperative production, which increased their income despite the drop in rice prices. This example naturally aroused calls for land reform from farmers in other regions, because the land reform in Chiba Prefecture was a pilot project, and since it was successful, it should be promoted nationwide.

However, the success of land reform in Chiba Prefecture was built on the forced expropriation of land from landlords who had left their jobs. Even those small landlords in the countryside continued to complain that the land reform policies had rendered their hard work futile. In other words, the influx of industrial capital forcefully suppressed the landlord power in Chiba Prefecture, preventing their voices from changing national policy.

However, for landowners in other regions, Chiba Prefecture's land reform was clearly a radical and arbitrary policy. Therefore, landowner representatives in the council consistently set limits to prevent the Chiba Prefecture land reform policy from spreading to other areas. Capitalists, having no significant interests in other regions, naturally wouldn't confront these landowner representatives, thus creating a very delicate situation: councilors, hoping for election, would advocate for land reform, but once elected, they would renege on their promises and protect the interests of the landowners.

The peasants, who had initially sought to change national policy through their votes, were becoming increasingly violent. Landlords naturally favored the army suppressing these peasant attacks. However, the army couldn't continue treating the peasants as enemies, given that its main force consisted of soldiers of peasant origin. Therefore, the army proposed launching a continental expansion campaign, attempting to distribute land on the mainland to landless Japanese peasants to alleviate domestic social tensions. However, the rapid defeat of the Beiyang Army left the army somewhat bewildered.

End of this chapter

Chapter 794

On November 15, 1914, the East China Area Army in Wuhan defeated the main force of the Anwu Army and captured Bengbu, thus cutting off the railway connection between the First Army and the Second Army. Li Chun, who was hesitant between capturing Nanjing and retreating, panicked when he heard the news. He regrouped his troops and asked Feng Guozhang in Xuzhou and Yuan Shikai in Beijing for help, saying that if the Jinpu Railway could not be opened, the First Army would be trapped.

Just a month earlier, Li Chun had confidently assured Yuan Shikai that he would bring the southeastern region under the control of the Beiyang government. Li Chun dared to make such a promise to Yuan Shikai because the situation in the southeast was indeed unfavorable to the Workers' Party a month earlier.

Since the Workers' Party seized control of Wuhan, it had blocked the passage of foreign merchant ships on the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Although Wuhan agreed to grant foreign merchant ships conditional navigation rights after the great powers abandoned their military threats, it required that Wuhan take a stake in these shipping companies. Except for the Germans, the other great powers refused to accept these conditions, thus the navigation rights on the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River were monopolized by the Chinese.

As Wuhan's industrial scale continued to expand and railway construction developed, Britain and Japan finally realized that their attempt to blockade Wuhan's maritime shipping was clearly doomed to failure. This would only hand over shipping business to the Germans for nothing. Japan would only lose shipping profits, but for British capital that controlled Shanghai, the entire trade network in China would be destroyed.

After forcing the Qing Dynasty to open Shanghai as a treaty port, Britain regarded the Yangtze River as a vital transportation artery to penetrate deep into the Chinese interior, similar to the Ganges River in India. Calcutta became the capital of British India because the Ganges brought the produce of the richest plains in North India, thus facilitating the exchange of industrial goods between Calcutta and Britain.

For Britain, Shanghai was like a second Calcutta, so opening up the Yangtze River waterway was a crucial part of Britain's strategy toward China. In 1852, Shanghai had a population of 54, which had exceeded 128 million by 1910, more than the combined population of the three towns of Wuhan, which was already China's largest industrialized city.

Shanghai's development relied on absorbing the output of various provinces along the Yangtze River through the Yangtze River waterway. The final trade was completed in Shanghai, a port for foreign trade. By 1909, it already had 165 industries, only thirty or forty fewer than Wuhan.

Initially, Wuhan's industrial development actually benefited Shanghai, as Wuhan's primary processing industries increased Shanghai's export trade volume. However, as Wuhan's heavy industry base was established, the British found that their trade advantage with China was constantly weakening.

As a long-established colonial empire, Britain maintained a leading position in industrial technology, but lagged behind Germany and the United States in the application of new technologies. This was because Germany's industry was geared towards Europe, the United States towards its own agriculture, while Britain's was based on its vast overseas colonies. The backward agriculture of the colonies had no need for new technologies, so although Britain maintained a technological lead, there was never a need for its large-scale application.

British trade with China has always been compressed. Traditional Chinese exports such as silk, tea, porcelain, cotton cloth, and sugar were distributed to British overseas colonies under the British colonial system. As a result, a large trade deficit began to appear between China and Britain, and large amounts of silver and gold were used to fill the trade gap.

From a certain perspective, at this time, Britain's trade with China was mainly focused on plundering precious metals, and there was no plan to establish colonial industries in China. In other overseas colonies, after the British had drained the local precious metals, they began to lay out colonial industries and then used the pound sterling to control the local economy, thus fully incorporating it into Britain's global trade system.

However, China's economy was much larger than India's, and China was a unified country, not a fragmented country like India that had been conquered and then pieced together by the British. Therefore, China's internal trade was much more complete than India's, and the British were not as efficient at draining China's circulating currency. In addition, with the completion of the Second Industrial Revolution, the late-developing powers all saw the unconquered land in the Far East. Thus, the mutual restraint among the powers also delayed the collapse of China's economic system.

After the Workers' Party secured the safety of the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River with military force, it gained the leverage to cooperate with German capital. While the Germans were eager to acquire precious metals, they also needed raw materials and markets. In comparison, the Germans were more willing to make concessions to China to ensure that the Chinese market was open to German capital.

To ensure a balance in Sino-German trade, Germany had to accept Wuhan's suggestion to transfer some labor-intensive industries to China. This had both advantages and disadvantages for Germany. The relocation of these labor-intensive industries reduced many industrial jobs in Germany, but the import of primary industrial products from China greatly reduced the cost of German industry and expanded the market for German machinery, chemical and other industries.

Although the expansion of Sino-German trade did not increase Germany's reserves of precious metals, which were the most valued assets of the old colonial system, this trade did expand the issuance of the German mark. Previously, although the German mark was the third most widely circulated currency in the world after the British pound and the French franc, the British pound accounted for about 50% of the foreign exchange reserves of central banks and governments around the world, the French franc accounted for 30%, and the German mark accounted for only 15%.

The value of the pound sterling lies in the global settlement system established by the UK, which guarantees its liquidity. The value of the franc lies in France's large amount of foreign borrowing, and the repayment of principal and interest by various countries maintains the value of the franc. The value of the mark, however, depends on the redemption of gold. Therefore, among the central banks of the UK, France, and Germany, only the German central bank needs to hold a large amount of gold reserves. Although the UK and France value gold, they can both make payments through bills.

Wuhan's recognition of the German mark provided a pool of overseas funds for the mark, but this dealt a blow to British financial activities in China. As the creator of the international gold standard, Britain could not tolerate the increasing circulation of the mark in the Far East market. This was also the root cause of British financial capital's support for the Beiyang government's war effort, because Wuhan was seen by British financial capital as a supporter of the German mark, which was tantamount to establishing a non-pound sterling trading zone in the Far East, something British financial capital naturally could not tolerate.

The landlord class and commercial capital in the southeast region found it difficult to accept the Wuhan regime. The landlords opposed the land policy, while the commercial capital opposed the policy of unified purchase and sales. The Labor Party's business model was actually similar to that of a monopoly organization, namely, to monopolize the seller's market by uniting with rural cooperatives, thereby breaking the so-called free market economy.

The traditional Chinese business model was essentially one of hoarding and speculation, which involved controlling market prices by monopolizing grain and cotton cloth, suppressing the purchase price of agricultural products, and then selling handicrafts at high prices. After the great powers opened China's doors, the availability of even cheaper industrial goods stimulated traditional commercial capital, thus giving rise to the comprador class.

For these commercial capitalists, they didn't care about production and consumption, but only about sales channels. So, replacing local handicrafts with industrial products from foreign powers had little impact on them, and the declining purchasing power of farmers was irrelevant to them. However, the restrictions on commercial profits in Wuhan greatly displeased them, because under Wuhan's unified purchase and sales policy, they became laborers for farmers and factories. Moreover, Wuhan's protection of its domestic industries also greatly impacted the imported consumer goods traded by compradors.

In the southeast region, the military strength of the Labour Party was not absolutely dominant. However, the landlords and commercial capital in the southeast region were still powerless to challenge the Labour Party. Therefore, they hoped that the Beiyang Army would move south to break the strong order established by the Labour Party in the southeast and restore the previous local gentry order.

In Li Chun's view, his main opponent in the south was the armed forces around Nanjing, which consisted of about two divisions. One of these divisions was inclined to support local landlords and commercial capital. Therefore, this was a war that required cooperation from both inside and outside. He was confident that he could guarantee this to Yuan Shikai. After taking Nanjing, the most prosperous Jiangsu province would fall under his control, and Li Chun had no choice but to risk his life for this benefit.

However, Li Chun had not anticipated that Cao Kun's main force would suffer a defeat at Zheng County, which rendered the so-called plan to encircle Wuhan and launch a southern expedition a failure. According to this change in the situation, Li Chun should have retreated after the defeat at Zheng County, but his greed for Jiangsu and the pleas of local forces made him persist for a few more days, hoping to capture Nanjing and reverse the complete failure of the southern expedition.

Li Chun's idea was good. If the Beiyang Army really captured Nanjing, it would at least be equivalent to controlling the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the southern expedition plan would not have been a complete failure. However, Wuhan did not attempt to rescue Nanjing, but instead launched a full-scale offensive against the Huanghuai region. This clearly indicated that the First Army was to be completely annihilated on the banks of the Yangtze River, while attempting to leave the Second Army intact. This was no longer a counterattack, but the pace of a full-scale war.